Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Hearts v Dundee United

Saturday 27 February 2027, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 29

Forecast

HeartsDundee United
Expected goals1.880.96
Win58%18%
Expected Points1.990.78
Clean sheet38%15%

Hearts 58%Draw 23%Dundee United 18%

Most likely score 1–1, 11%. Both sides score 53%.

Dundee United goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+6%5%3%5%2%5%2%6%6%3%1%3%3%1%1%1%10%11%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Hearts

  1. L1–718 OctCeltic (A)xG 1.20–4.23
  2. W5–010 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.43–0.68
  3. D1–119 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 1.92–0.39
  4. L1–215 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.79–2.14
  5. W2–16 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.93–0.42
  6. W3–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.86–1.47

Dundee United

  1. D1–117 OctSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.02–1.29
  2. W1–010 OctHibernian (H)xG 1.68–0.77
  3. W3–019 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.60–0.99
  4. D1–15 SepFalkirk (H)xG 2.66–1.27
  5. L0–32 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.16–2.39
  6. W4–029 AugKilmarnock (A)xG 3.42–1.13

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsDundee United
Position3rd6th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠1–⁠33–⁠3–⁠3
Points16 (1.78 per game)12 (1.33 per game)
Expected Points per game1.701.45
Goals20–⁠1511–⁠12
xG per game1.93–⁠1.541.55–⁠1.44
Home: points, xG per game3.00, 2.44–⁠0.741.25, 1.79–⁠1.23
Away: points, xG per game0.80, 1.52–⁠2.181.40, 1.36–⁠1.60
ManagerWouter Vrancken (9)Jim Goodwin (97)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackHearts1.52, 3rdDundee United1.24, 6thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.16, 3rdDundee United1.43, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHearts attack: 1.52Dundee United attack: 1.241.521.24Dundee UnitedHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHearts defence: 1.16Dundee United defence: 1.431.431.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsDundee United
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+6%average−30%+6%
Counter-attacks−20%−10%+56%−64%
Set pieces+32%+4%+53%−13%
Penalties+129%−43%−43%−43%
Headers−14%+40%−5%−36%
Left side+41%+6%−26%+9%
Centre+13%+15%−2%−4%
Right side−35%−30%+34%−28%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdDundee United concededLeft side+41%−28%Centre+13%−4%Right side−35%+9%Open play+6%+6%Counter-attacks−20%−64%Set pieces+32%−13%Headers−14%−36%

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdHearts concededLeft side−26%−30%Centre−2%+15%Right side+34%+6%Open play−30%averageCounter-attacks+56%−10%Set pieces+53%+4%Headers−5%+40%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsDundee United

1.93xG1.55
1.54xG against1.44
54%Possession51%
17.1Shots15.9
10.4Shots against14.9
5.3Shots on target5.6
2.6Big chances2.2
29.7Touches in the opposition box30.0
455Passes421
80%Pass accuracy79%
6.9Corners6.3
59%Field tilt46%
38.2Final-third entries39.0
16.5Box entries14.0
12.1Passes per defensive action12.2

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level211.751.55
Ahead412.011.30
Behind281.951.87

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level251.891.30
Ahead261.741.14
Behind391.201.72

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.164–3
16–300.250.102–2
31–450.510.355–3
46–600.340.283–3
61–750.200.132–1
76–900.330.514–3

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.240.343–3
16–300.140.210–2
31–450.440.215–1
46–600.190.300–3
61–750.240.210–3
76–900.310.163–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTReus 9Altena 8Borchgrevink 1McCart 5McEntee 4Fagan-Walcott 2Findlay 6Milne 1McCart 2Kingsley 2Milne 2Magnússon 3McEntee 2Ageu 1Mendy 7Spittal 3Renaud 1Miller 6Kerjota 3Braga 7Guendouz 1Ba-Sy 1McPake 8Miller 1Wilson 6Braga 2Ba-Sy 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Dundee United

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWWalton 9Rawlins 8Yoro 1Esselink 9Forbes 9Ferry 5Ciubotaru 4Camará 4Sevelj 3Yoro 2Tait 7Agyei 4Cameron 4Iqbal 3Randall 4Merghem 4Bennie 1Metsoko 4Sapsford 3Rose 2Bennie 6Randall 2Sapsford 14-3-3 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
9 August 2026Hearts4–0Dundee UnitedxG 2.21–0.58
31 January 2026Dundee United0–3HeartsxG 0.18–4.39
9 November 2025Hearts1–1Dundee UnitedxG 0.45–0.34
10 August 2025Dundee United2–3HeartsxG 0.71–1.87
6 April 2025Hearts0–1Dundee UnitedxG 1.21–0.82
5 January 2025Dundee United0–1HeartsxG 0.66–0.85

14 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 9, Dundee United won 2, and 3 were drawn. Goals 33–15 and xG 1.74–0.88 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miller8589310.460.13
Braga9726320.470.10
McPake8610350.210.23
Mendy8672300.180.07

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Randall6596230.310.33
Bennie7503110.440.09
Tait7673000.080.15
Forbes9810100.110.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.