Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

St. Johnstone 1–1 Dundee United

Saturday 17 October 2026, 15:00 · McDiarmid Park · Round 9 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Ross Hardie · Attendance 6,351

St. Johnstone Fowler 21'

Dundee United Cameron 79'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. JohnstoneDundee United
Goals11
xG1.291.02
Expected Points1.571.12

St. Johnstone 42%Draw 31%Dundee United 27%

Most likely score 1–1, 16%. Final score 1–1, 16%.

Dundee United goalsSt. Johnstone goals0123456+0123456+8%9%4%1%7%2%9%10%6%1%3%4%2%13%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG. How Expected Points work.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTPaton on for Fowler, 46'Gullan on for Stanton and Fotheringham on for Steven, 82'Yoro on for Bennie, 46'Sapsford on for Metsoko and Rose on for Tait, 63'Fowler 21'Cameron 79'St. Johnstone 1.29Dundee United 1.0200.511.50153045607590HTPaton on for Fowler, 46'Gullan on for Stanton and Fotheringham on for Steven, 82'Yoro on for Bennie, 46'Sapsford on for Metsoko and Rose on for Tait, 63'Fowler 21'Cameron 79'1.291.02St. JohnstoneDundee United

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. JohnstoneDundee United

1.29 −0.04xG1.02 −0.60
0.73 −0.68xG on target1.68 −0.02
11 +1.1Shots14 −2.1
5 +1.6Shots on target7 +1.6
1 −1.4Big chances1 −1.4
17 −1Touches in the opposition box30 0
38% −10Possession62% +12
363 −78Passes600 +202
75% −5Pass accuracy84% +6
4 +0.8Corners7 +0.8
18 +5Tackles15 −2
8 +0.1Interceptions8 −2.4
32 −6Clearances12 −19
6 +2.0Saves3 −0.4
11 0Fouls15 +3
2 +1.1Offsides2 +0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one.

Chance locations

St. Johnstone

Alić 16', 0.26 xGHolt 55', 0.25 xGPaton 62', 0.17 xGStanton 17', 0.06 xGPaton 55', 0.05 xGSteven 53', 0.04 xGAlić 76', 0.04 xGGullan 90', 0.04 xGFotheringham 90', 0.03 xGStanton 62', 0.02 xGFowler 21', 0.32 xG, goal20%0.26 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.26 xG, 0 goals43%0.56 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.56 xG, 1 goal24%0.31 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.31 xG, 0 goals12%0.16 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Dundee United

Bennie 14', 0.19 xGMetsoko 5', 0.10 xGCameron 89', 0.10 xGIqbal 70', 0.08 xGSapsford 85', 0.06 xGSapsford 89', 0.05 xGCameron 68', 0.04 xGCiubotaru 5', 0.03 xGCameron 37', 0.03 xGCameron 64', 0.03 xG90', 0.03 xGTait 40', 0.02 xGIqbal 84', 0.02 xGCameron 79', 0.23 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals68%0.69 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.69 xG, 1 goal8%0.08 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals20%0.20 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals5%0.05 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. JohnstoneDundee United

0.52 6 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.43 7 shots, 0 goals
0.17 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.26 2 shots, 1 goal
0.60 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.32 5 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
34 min (37%) · St. Johnstone 0.72, Dundee United 0.58 xG
St. Johnstone ahead
58 min (63%) · St. Johnstone 0.58, Dundee United 0.43 xG

Line-ups

1331932428113079StewardSmithFinlaysonDiabateAlićMcAlearHoltStantonCotterillStevenFowlerYellow cardYellow cardGoal82'82'46'St. Johnstone 4-2-3-1Simo Valakari12331819101614779321WaltonRawlinsEsselinkForbesCiubotaruTaitCameronIqbalBennieMetsokoRandallYellow cardGoalYellow cardYellow card63'46'63'Dundee United 4-3-3Jim Goodwin

St. Johnstone substitutes

  • 46' Paton for Fowler
  • 82' Gullan for Stanton
  • 82' Fotheringham for Steven

Dundee United substitutes

  • 46' Yoro for Bennie
  • 63' Rose for Tait
  • 63' Sapsford for Metsoko

Players

St. Johnstone

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
StewardGK900.000.0002
SmithRB900.000.0514
FinlaysonCB900.000.10011
DiabateCB900.000.0106
AlićLB9010.310.2926
McAlear DM900.000.2617
Holt DM900.250.0412
StantonRW820.090.0407
CotterillAM900.000.0223
StevenLW820.040.0708
FowlerST4610.320.0102
PatonFW440.220.0211
GullanFW80.040.0001
FotheringhamFW80.030.0000

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
WaltonGK900.000.0002
RawlinsRB900.000.4238
EsselinkCB900.000.0315
ForbesCB900.000.0305
CiubotaruLB900.030.0303
Tait CM630.020.0901
Cameron CM9010.440.1013
Iqbal CM900.100.0812
BennieRW460.190.0100
MetsokoST630.100.0302
RandallLW9010.000.2732
YoroMF440.000.0535
RoseFW270.000.0000
SapsfordFW270.110.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions).

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackSt. Johnstone1.07 → 1.07Dundee United1.25 → 1.24Defence (lower is better)St. Johnstone1.56 → 1.52Dundee United1.43 → 1.44

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Johnstone
Top six27%23%−4
11th14%15%+1
Bottom16%17%+1
Dundee United
Top six44%44%0
11th7%6%−1
Bottom4%4%0

From the forecast before the match (17 October 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points. How the forecasts work.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. JohnstoneDundee United
Expected goals1.321.29
Win37%36%
Expected Points1.381.34
Clean sheet28%27%

St. Johnstone 37%Draw 28%Dundee United 36%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Dundee United goalsSt. Johnstone goals0123456+0123456+8%9%6%3%9%8%3%1%6%8%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 17 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Johnstone winDrawDundee United win
St. Johnstone
Top six27%37%23%19%
11th14%12%15%17%
Bottom16%10%17%21%
Dundee United
Top six44%35%44%55%
11th7%9%6%4%
Bottom4%6%4%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Johnstone

  1. W1–011 OctAberdeen (A)xG 1.10–1.23
  2. D1–119 SepFalkirk (H)xG 0.94–1.29
  3. L0–19 SepCeltic (H)xG 0.69–1.80
  4. W2–16 SepHibernian (H)xG 2.32–1.61
  5. D1–12 SepDundee FC (A)xG 1.08–2.07
  6. L1–229 AugHearts (A)xG 1.28–2.20

Dundee United

  1. W1–010 OctHibernian (H)xG 1.68–0.77
  2. W3–019 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.60–0.99
  3. D1–15 SepFalkirk (H)xG 2.66–1.27
  4. L0–32 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.16–2.39
  5. W4–029 AugKilmarnock (A)xG 3.42–1.13
  6. L0–222 AugDundee FC (H)xG 1.19–1.43

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. JohnstoneDundee United
Position5th6th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠2–⁠33–⁠2–⁠3
Points11 (1.38 per game)11 (1.38 per game)
Expected Points per game1.171.49
Goals10–⁠1010–⁠11
xG per game1.33–⁠1.591.62–⁠1.46
Home: points, xG per game1.75, 1.49–⁠1.411.25, 1.79–⁠1.23
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.16–⁠1.771.50, 1.44–⁠1.68
ManagerSimo Valakari (39)Jim Goodwin (96)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackSt. Johnstone1.07, 12thDundee United1.25, 6thDefence (lower is better)St. Johnstone1.56, 11thDundee United1.43, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctSt. Johnstone attack: 1.07Dundee United attack: 1.251.251.07Dundee UnitedSt. JohnstoneDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctSt. Johnstone defence: 1.56Dundee United defence: 1.431.561.43

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. JohnstoneDundee United
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−21%+11%−24%+17%
Counter-attacks−55%−18%+57%−71%
Set pieces−29%+3%+64%−23%
Penalties+80%−40%−40%−40%
Headers−18%+40%+1%−39%
Left side−6%+13%−18%+12%
Centre−20%−7%+3%−2%
Right side−63%+16%+43%−21%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Johnstone attacking

St. Johnstone createdDundee United concededLeft side−6%−21%Centre−20%−2%Right side−63%+12%Open play−21%+17%Counter-attacks−55%−71%Set pieces−29%−23%Headers−18%−39%

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdSt. Johnstone concededLeft side−18%+16%Centre+3%−7%Right side+43%+13%Open play−24%+11%Counter-attacks+57%−18%Set pieces+64%+3%Headers+1%+40%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. JohnstoneDundee United

1.33xG1.62
1.59xG against1.46
48%Possession50%
9.9Shots16.1
14.0Shots against15.4
3.4Shots on target5.4
2.4Big chances2.4
18.4Touches in the opposition box30.0
441Passes398
80%Pass accuracy78%
3.2Corners6.2
49%Field tilt46%
39.7Final-third entries39.0
10.9Box entries14.0
18.3Passes per defensive action12.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Johnstone

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.591.52
Ahead210.831.90
Behind231.251.44

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level241.931.19
Ahead291.741.14
Behind361.301.89

xG by period

St. Johnstone

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.121–1
16–300.200.202–1
31–450.290.321–2
46–600.330.312–4
61–750.130.211–1
76–900.200.423–1

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.230.383–3
16–300.160.160–1
31–450.490.235–1
46–600.210.300–3
61–750.250.220–3
76–900.280.172–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Unavailable

St. Johnstone

PlayerReasonExpected backStartsMin
MitchellInjuryOut for season6527

Dundee United

PlayerReasonExpected backStartsMin
AgyeiInjuryMid October 20264240
MerghemInjuryLate October 20264218

Injured, suspended, and otherwise unavailable players as listed before the match, with their league starts and minutes this season.

Most used players by position

St. Johnstone

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTSteward 8Smith 5Todd 3Mitchell 6Finlayson 2Diabate 7Foulds 1Alić 6Foulds 2McAlear 7Stanton 1Holt 8Stanton 4Campbell 2Smith 1Paton 2Cotterill 2Gullan 2Paton 3Steven 3Gullan 2Fowler 7Gullan 14-2-3-1 in 4 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (4), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Dundee United

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWWalton 8Rawlins 7Yoro 1Esselink 8Forbes 8Ferry 5Ciubotaru 3Camará 4Sevelj 3Iqbal 2Tait 6Agyei 4Cameron 3Yoro 2Randall 4Merghem 4Metsoko 3Sapsford 3Rose 2Bennie 6Randall 1Sapsford 14-3-3 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
12 April 2025Dundee United1–0St. JohnstonexG 1.17–0.95
26 December 2024St. Johnstone1–2Dundee UnitedxG 0.58–1.27
24 August 2024Dundee United2–0St. JohnstonexG 0.41–1.58
6 May 2023St. Johnstone1–0Dundee UnitedxG 1.12–1.26
18 February 2023Dundee United1–2St. JohnstonexG 1.17–0.95
2 January 2023St. Johnstone0–1Dundee UnitedxG 0.63–0.54

13 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Johnstone won 4, Dundee United won 5, and 4 were drawn. Goals 10–12 and xG 0.90–1.09 per game.

Key players

St. Johnstone

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Fowler7557510.560.05
Alić6540100.030.16
Stanton6545010.090.05
Diabate7593100.070.02

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Randall5506220.360.35
Bennie6457110.450.09
Tait6610000.090.15
Forbes8720100.120.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.